Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, starting from November 1, 2026, until prior to December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, the Iranian Armed Forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - IRGC) launch a direct kinetic strike (such as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or direct drone attacks) against an officially recognized U.S. military base or facility housing U.S. armed forces, and that strike is publicly acknowledged or confirmed by either:

• The U.S. Department of Defense / CENTCOM, or

• Credible consensus reporting by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

This market resolves to NO if no such strike occurs before December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.

Notes and edge cases:

• Attribution: The strike must be carried out directly by Iranian state forces or claimed directly by Iran. Attacks conducted solely by regional proxy groups (such as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Houthis, or Hezbollah) without official Iranian claim or direct state operation do not count toward a YES resolution, unless officially attributed as a direct IRGC/Iranian military launch.

• Intercepted attacks count as a strike if kinetic ordnance launched by Iran was targeted at a U.S. facility.

Background

Direct Iranian strikes against U.S. military installations have historically occurred in specific escalatory cycles, most notably the January 2020 ballistic missile attack on Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. While Iran-aligned militia groups frequently target U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria using drones and rockets, direct kinetic launches originating from sovereign Iranian territory or officially claimed by the IRGC remain relatively rare and carry significant risks of direct U.S.–Iran conventional conflict.