Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, between the creation of this market and 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026, the government or official military forces of Iran directly launch one or more missiles—including ballistic, cruise, or guided missiles—that land within the territory or territorial waters of any Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates).

This market resolves to NO if no such direct missile strike occurs within this timeframe.

Resolution will be based on reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg) or official statements from the governments of the involved nations. If conflicting reports emerge, the consensus of reputable international reporting agencies will be used.

Background

Tensions in the Persian Gulf have historically been characterized by proxy conflicts, maritime security incidents, and localized missile or drone attacks. A direct, overt missile strike by the Iranian state against a GCC nation would represent a significant escalation in regional geopolitical dynamics. Traders should monitor official statements from the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the defense ministries of GCC nations, as well as reporting from established geopolitical conflict trackers.

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