Will aisafetyideas.com reach 200,000 total unique visitors in a year?
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23
Ṁ33k
resolved May 21
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NO
aisafetyideas.com is a page that collects and showcases shovel-ready AI safety and governance project ideas. As development goes along, it will facilitate crowdsourcing ideas, mentorships, expert validation, funding and more. The reason for 200,000 total unique visitors as the first question is because it is an understandable metric even before the launch of a platform (i.e. evaluated first on the idea itself). The theory of impact for aisafetyideas.com is to provide easy access for ML engineers and ML researchers to AI safety and it will be advertised outside of the core field in probably about 3 months, i.e. this will reach more than the 5,000 that might visit from effective altruism. PS: It is not a key value indicator for our org (Apart Research) and more markets are on the way for those. **Note**: As of opening this market, we are 1.5 weeks into development. The website is not currently open and the `/open` page will be connected to our data sources as we open the main app. The idea for this prediction market is to see how the predictions change with feature improvements and public announcements. Links: - The main site: https://aisafetyideas.com - The data site: https://aisafetyideas.com/open
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#Effective Altruism
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Very cool idea!
I really love what you're doing; both on the object level around AI Safety, and meta by exposing your analytics and building your project in public! So consider this an bounty on my side, I really hope y'all do well! And of course, let me know how I can help~ I would note that Manifold doesn't have 200k unique visitors yet haha; Google Analytics reports ~30k since the start of the year, and I'd estimate a 1.2-1.5x true multiple based on people blocking Google Analytics too. PS - for other people who are interested, join the Discord server https://discord.com/invite/dstPBmhEe5
predictedYES
@Austin I definitely realize it's an aggressive target (also given some of my earlier endeavors' unique visitors) but that's indeed what makes it fun ;) Thanks for the support! What would you put the probability of Manifold reaching 200k at the end of 2022?
predictedNO
Hm, we don't really measure that directly, but it seems a rough proxy is that 10% of all visitors have signed up. 20k sign-ups by end of year feels like... 50 percent to me?
predictedYES
Oh well, this is strictly unique visitors. There is not a user functionality on the website yet so that will be a later prediction market on our end, though that is indeed also a very good question.
predictedYES
But really interesting that it's up towards 10%. I would have imagined a lower number; that is quite successful!

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