Will Amazon Web Services (AWS) experience a significant outage before the end of 2023?
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A payout on YES will happen if an outage is significant enough to make the news (e.g., AP wire, Axios, NY Times or roughly equivalent stature).
Any outages occurring prior to the time of posting (October 8, 2023) are not counted for this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Based on their own post-event summaries, Amazon's last major outage was in June 2023. Before that, the previous outage was in December 2021. (See Post-Event Summaries (amazon.com).)
If the base rate for major outages is about once a year, we can expect roughly a 12% chance of a major outage in the next month. But I would expect the actual probability to be even lower, since cloud software companies usually avoid deploying changes and focus on ensuring stability around major holidays like Christmas.
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