Will winner of the 2023 Formula 1 Championship be decided before October?
resolved Oct 2

Resolves to YES if the driver leading the championship has a greater gap to the driver in second place, than there are potential points remaining after the results of the Japanese Grand Prix.

In the case neither the Japanese GP or Qatar GP are held, this market will resolve at the end of September.

Resolves to NO if no champion has been decided before October 1st.

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predicted NO


30 Sept 2023 article:

"Verstappen needs to be at least 146 points clear off his teammate to seal the title at the Qatar GP. Hence, even if the Red Bull posterboy scores no points at the Sprint race and Perez takes a win, Verstappen would still be crowned the Champion if he finishes eighth or higher at the Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix."

Resolves to YES if the driver leading the championship has a greater gap to the driver in second place, than there are potential points remaining after the results of the Japanese Grand Prix.

Results of Japanese GP are in, but risk in next few hours seems low.

predicted NO

@aoife Resolve please.

predicted NO

mathematically impossible to have a champion decided before october, please resolve now @aoife. Other market on this question has resolved.

predicted NO

@ryfuzzi If a race in October is cancelled before October? Unlikely but not impossible?

@ChristopherRandles yeah, this isn't resolving until the end date as set out in the description :) While it's essentially a given it can be resolved now, other circumstances, e.g disqualifications, as happened with Schumi, race cancellations and so on are unlikely, but possible, so it resolves on Oct 1st (as noted in the description)

this is now mathematically impossible, please resolve NO

Still overvalued imo. Even if Max wins in Singapore and Japan + fastest lap (52 points), Perez would prevent the WDC from being awarded in September by earning more than 16 points -- all he needs to do is finish 2nd once or higher than 6th in both races.

@JonWatson well thanks alot for ruining the alpha for the rest of us.

@JonWatson After 30 Sept, 6 races left at 26 per race is 156 so lead needs to be 157 or more and is already 145. 2 wins guarantees at least a 12 point increase in the lead even with Perez both 2nd and winning fastest lap. There are also lots of other ways to increase lead by 12 points or more.

If Max has won 12 out of 14, is his chances of winning next two something like 12*12/14*14=144/196=73% and possibly a third or more of the other 27% might also increase lead by 12 so maybe 82% chance.

Your maths looks like it is assuming there are 7 more races after 30 Sept? Or is it me that is confused?

@ChristopherRandles whatever you think, i will continue buying N

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles There are 3 sprint races also, max of 24 points. So the required margin after Japan is 180 (Max has already secured the tiebreaker).

wrong closing date btw

predicted NO

@aoife please re-open

@PhilippJB0 originally the intent was for this to be a 'true' prediction market - but I'm good to reopen until end of Sept.

@aoife actually, I don't seem to have the option to reopen it? The app doesn't give me a confirm/ok button for editing the resolution time, and the full site (on my phone) doesn't have the option?

@aoife nevermind hahahha, found it

predicted NO

@aoife 🙏🙏

predicted NO

As @DennisBruikman said, Max would need a 181 point lead by end of September. Current lead is 138 points, so another 43 points are required.

There are three races left until end of September (no sprints), so Max would need to gain 14.3 points per race on Checo on average for the next three races.

Last 5 races were 13, 7, 9, 18, 11, so 11.6 points gained on average.

It's also worth noting that the next race coming up, Monza, is a low downforce track which favours the Red Bull car, so Checo might do rather well there compared to the other teams.

It seems more likely that we won't have a champion by end of September.

In and after October there are 6 races left, 3 of which have a sprint so if I'm not mistaken there would be 180 points available still for whoever's in second place (150pts in race wins, 6 fastest laps and 24 points for winning all 3 sprints). Therefore Max (or any driver but presumably Max) would need to have a 181 point lead after Japan, which seems optimistic, which is why I bought some NO. Although last year Max ended the season with a 146 point lead of 2nd and that was after a terrible start to the season, needing to close the gap to Leclerc and only having a dominant car later in the season so since Red Bull has started so strongly this year it is certainly not unthinkable, I still think before October is unlikely.