whoever wins the most mana on this market gets a free dinner in SF with @barak at a restaurant of their choice
29
885
3.6K
Jun 1
5%
Will California secede from the union by market close?
42%
I will receive $1776
42%
Aella’s Fluffer!
46%
I can’t make dinner but appreciate the offer of 1776
46%
I'll bet the 1776 mana on Michelle Obama not winning the election
47%
it cost 15 Mana to add this answer
50%
This statement is false
52%
I'm gonna donate the 1776 to Givewell
53%
agency
83%
&_€#£&¥--7()99

this is the market description. subject to change. you need not be 18 years or older to enter.

you can choose the date of the dinner, as long as it's within a week of Manifest 2024 Berkeley

the close date and market title will not change*

*I changed the market title from "loses" to "wins" on March 11

Get Ṁ200 play money
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I believe the market doesn't specify how it will be resolved. Feel free to suggest resolution criteria ... one fun one might be anything that's trading under 42% gets resolved 50%, anything that's trading above 69% gets resolved 6%, and anything that's trading X% between 42% and 69% gets resolved to (50 - X) * 2 + 50, so that 50% stays at 50% but 49% becomes 52% and 60% becomes 30%.

@barak Feel free to suggest your own resolution criteria in the comments or in the set of answers.

hey @traders this is Barak. I'm sorry for not labeling @america as my alt. It's now banned. I, @barak, will honor the terms of this market. I expect trading to intensify closer to the close date, which not-coincidentally is right before Manifest.is ...

bought Ṁ600 agency YES

also is anyone actually interested in the dinner jw ...

@america yes although i dunno for sure if ill be around

@america yeah I like dinner

I reversed the market definition to award the dinner to whoever wins the most mana cuz I bet that might be more engaging. I can send Mana to anyone who is upset.

@america I didn't bet on the previous version but I'm upset nonetheless

@retr0id sorry about that, nothing I can do

@america great idea, definitely more fun this way.

opened a Ṁ1,000 agency NO at 51% order

Put up limit orders at 51 and 49% on "agency" if anybody wants to lose a free 40 mana

I honored my bargain. not my fault the site is bugged to shit

will send M$1776 to first 5 ppl that add answers

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