Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $3.50 per dozen eggs for February 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
The average price for November 2022 was $3.59. The average price for December 2022 was $4.25.
I will not bet in this market.

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USDA reporting avg retail of 3.03 for the past week
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pywretailegg.pdf
Buy my limit orders š„²
Wholesale prices continue to drop, but I haven't seen the same from retail.
I may have been over-optimistic before, and now think this market is probably priced about right.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pydseindex.pdf
As of Jan 25, daily wholesale shell egg prices have dropped to where they were in October (weighted average of $2.18). I think this is 95+%, but don't have the resources to invest more.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pydseindex.pdf
We're past the holiday peak demand time, and prices have already dropped a lot. In addition, January through mid-February, together with mid-summer, tend to see the fewest numbers of birds affected by bird flu. So, I think Feb is likely to see an average price less than $3.50. (But I don't think it will last for long.)
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Alan Grow
@micsolana The 2015 spike was also avian flu. Iām running a Manifold Prediction Market on egg prices btw! https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-e?referrer=alangrow https://t.co/gwKfGHGU5x