Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023?

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resolved Mar 14

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Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $3.50 per dozen eggs for February 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

The average price for November 2022 was $3.59. The average price for December 2022 was $4.25.

I will not bet in this market.

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You all might find it interesting that this did happen in March — FRED reports $3.45.

bought Ṁ147 of NO

It did not happen. FRED reported 4.211

bought Ṁ199 of NO

I know nothing about eggs but the chart clearly looks like it is not going to be down so much so fast

predicted YES

USDA reporting avg retail of 3.03 for the past week

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pywretailegg.pdf

Buy my limit orders 🥲

bought Ṁ568 of NO

I've set a massive limit order at 40%. I still think the market should be higher (55%ish), but I'm just trying to get Mana back to donate. Enjoy the free alpha if ur sticking around this site!

FRED just reported $4.82 for the January average price. (We still have about a month until the February price is reported.)

predicted YES

Wholesale prices continue to drop, but I haven't seen the same from retail.

I may have been over-optimistic before, and now think this market is probably priced about right.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pydseindex.pdf

bought Ṁ222 of YES

As of Jan 25, daily wholesale shell egg prices have dropped to where they were in October (weighted average of $2.18). I think this is 95+%, but don't have the resources to invest more.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pydseindex.pdf

predicted YES

https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Egg%20Markets%20Overview.pdf

if the constitution applied to chickens, like it should, eggs would be worth far more than 4$ per dozen!

bought Ṁ30 of YES

We're past the holiday peak demand time, and prices have already dropped a lot. In addition, January through mid-February, together with mid-summer, tend to see the fewest numbers of birds affected by bird flu. So, I think Feb is likely to see an average price less than $3.50. (But I don't think it will last for long.)

bought Ṁ150 of YES

https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Egg%20Markets%20Overview.pdf

predicted YES

Not wildly confident in my interpretation of this data but confident enough to throw some money at this somewhat new market.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Alan Grow

@micsolana The 2015 spike was also avian flu. I’m running a Manifold Prediction Market on egg prices btw! https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-e?referrer=alangrow https://t.co/gwKfGHGU5x