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You all might find it interesting that this did happen in March — FRED reports $3.45.

It did not happen. FRED reported 4.211

I know nothing about eggs but the chart clearly looks like it is not going to be down so much so fast

USDA reporting avg retail of 3.03 for the past week

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pywretailegg.pdf

Buy my limit orders 🥲

I've set a massive limit order at 40%. I still think the market should be higher (55%ish), but I'm just trying to get Mana back to donate. Enjoy the free alpha if ur sticking around this site!

FRED just reported $4.82 for the January average price. (We still have about a month until the February price is reported.)

Wholesale prices continue to drop, but I haven't seen the same from retail.

I may have been over-optimistic before, and now think this market is probably priced about right.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pydseindex.pdf

As of Jan 25, daily wholesale shell egg prices have dropped to where they were in October (weighted average of $2.18). I think this is 95+%, but don't have the resources to invest more.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/pydseindex.pdf

https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Egg%20Markets%20Overview.pdf

if the constitution applied to chickens, like it should, eggs would be worth far more than 4$ per dozen!

We're past the holiday peak demand time, and prices have already dropped a lot. In addition, January through mid-February, together with mid-summer, tend to see the fewest numbers of birds affected by bird flu. So, I think Feb is likely to see an average price less than $3.50. (But I don't think it will last for long.)

https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Egg%20Markets%20Overview.pdf

Not wildly confident in my interpretation of this data but confident enough to throw some money at this somewhat new market.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Alan Grow

@micsolana The 2015 spike was also avian flu. I’m running a Manifold Prediction Market on egg prices btw! https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-e?referrer=alangrow https://t.co/gwKfGHGU5x