Was Adam D'Angelo behind the OpenAI coup?
64
1.1kṀ13k
resolved Apr 9
Resolved
NO

Burden of proof: yes (light)

At the time of creation of this question it is widely repeated that Ilya Sutskever was instrumental in the OpenAI coup.

Sutskever, who also co-founded OpenAI and leads its researchers, was instrumental in the ousting of Altman this week, according to multiple sources.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo

However, at this time Ilya has joined a petition calling for the Board of Directions to resign and has stated that he regrets his role, implying he was not the actual leader of the coup.

I will choose yes if media sources begin explicitly naming Adam D'Angelo and implying or suggesting that he had a hand in leading the coup or that he influenced Ilya to do so.

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Resolution please @aimless_intent

"Was Prigozhin behind OpenAI coup?"

I feel like the answer here is almost certainly “yes” but MSM will take a while to reach that conclusion

no, hes still on the new board emerging from the drama, backed by msft now

@Blomfilter or maybe he managed to eek out a draw? Others have flipped and/or agreeded to resign yet here he is clinging to a board seat.

predictedNO

“I will choose yes if media sources begin explicitly naming Adam D'Angelo and implying or suggesting…” - this is a crazy low bar. What if there’s an article that says ‘Adam may have done it, but [maybe/probably] not?’ What if an article says anonymous sources suggest he’s behind it, and the next day confirm that he wasn’t?

Why is this so low? Base rate should be roughly 1 in 3, right? Unless it was “all of them” that were leading it

predictedNO

@dominic Yeah I think the default assumption would be that all of them were behind it

How does this resolve? What burden of proof will you require?

@RobertCousineau Updated. Open to suggestions.

@RobertCousineau That looks really good!

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