How many partners will Agrippa have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)
6
10
Ṁ91Ṁ101
resolved Jan 6
Resolved as
73%1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves PROB according to this formula:
2^(# partners) = odds, then convert odds to probability
0 gf = 1:1 = 50%
1 gf = 2:1 = 67%
2 gf = 4:1 = 80%
3 gf = 9:1 = 90%
4 gf = 16:1 = 94%
Copied from https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have with adjustments
"Partners" defined here as at least semi romantic and physically intimate. I will skew more towards common parlance than my own typical usage of the word (which is more amorphous and de-facto).
x.5 multiplier for LDRs
x(N/6) for "comets", where N is the number of months I spent around them in 2022 year up to 6
Base rates:
#partners is currently 1
#partners would have been ~1.3 for 2021
Over the past decade, I have spent around 8 years in at least 1 serious relationship across ~4 partners. I have spent about 6 months with 2 partners.
May 13, 2:13am: I am poly
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ0 | |
2 | Ṁ0 |
Related questions
Related questions
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
42% chance
How many girls (any gender) will I kiss in 2024?
Will I have a girlfriend in 2024?
31% chance
Will I at any point in 2024 have more than one romantic partner?
50% chance
Will i get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
57% chance
Which of these Partner will remain a partner by the end of 2025?
Will I find a partner by 2027?
79% chance
Will Isaak Freeman have a gf in 2024?
61% chance
Will i do my first time with my gf by 2024
72% chance
How many cishet relationships will be started on Manifold Dating before the end of 2024?
19% chance