How many partners will Agrippa have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)
70%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$27 bet
This market resolves PROB according to this formula: 2^(# partners) = odds, then convert odds to probability 0 gf = 1:1 = 50% 1 gf = 2:1 = 67% 2 gf = 4:1 = 80% 3 gf = 9:1 = 90% 4 gf = 16:1 = 94% Copied from https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have with adjustments "Partners" defined here as at least semi romantic and physically intimate. I will skew more towards common parlance than my own typical usage of the word (which is more amorphous and de-facto). x.5 multiplier for LDRs x(N/6) for "comets", where N is the number of months I spent around them in 2022 year up to 6 Base rates: #partners is currently 1 #partners would have been ~1.3 for 2021 Over the past decade, I have spent around 8 years in at least 1 serious relationship across ~4 partners. I have spent about 6 months with 2 partners. May 13, 2:13am: I am poly