How many partners will Agrippa have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)
6
101Ṁ91resolved Jan 6
Resolved as
73%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves PROB according to this formula:
2^(# partners) = odds, then convert odds to probability
0 gf = 1:1 = 50%
1 gf = 2:1 = 67%
2 gf = 4:1 = 80%
3 gf = 9:1 = 90%
4 gf = 16:1 = 94%
Copied from https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have with adjustments
"Partners" defined here as at least semi romantic and physically intimate. I will skew more towards common parlance than my own typical usage of the word (which is more amorphous and de-facto).
x.5 multiplier for LDRs
x(N/6) for "comets", where N is the number of months I spent around them in 2022 year up to 6
Base rates:
#partners is currently 1
#partners would have been ~1.3 for 2021
Over the past decade, I have spent around 8 years in at least 1 serious relationship across ~4 partners. I have spent about 6 months with 2 partners.
May 13, 2:13am: I am poly
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