How many lovers will Sinclair have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)
23
44
244
resolved Jan 17
Resolved as
73%

This market resolves PROB according to this formula:

2^(# gfs) = odds, then convert odds to probability

0 gf = 1:1 = 50%

1 gf = 2:1 = 67%

2 gf = 4:1 = 80%

3 gf = 8:1 = 88%

4 gf = 16:1 = 94%

A gf is a girlfriend/boyfriend/enbyfriend

Sex friends / cuddle friends count as 0.5 of a gf.

If I am uncertain whether I'm dating someone, I'll add count them as a fractional gf

Details: I'm poly. I usually don't date people seriously, but I want to.

This question is asking about how many gfs I have concurrently on the last day of this year (not the total this year)

More readable version (pls arb):

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ok I realize my wording was ambiguous, but I'm counting "cuddle friend" as requiring emotional intimacy beyond mere friendship.

its the more common meaning according to twitter poll and it's also what I intended.

anyways, 1 gf and 1 cuddle friend (90% prob) brings the final score to 1.45 (= 73.2%)

kind of a weird result. I felt like I was getting more love than that last year.
there were a few people I saw regularly-ish, who in aggregate probably count but individually don't.
also too much depends on DTR before or after new years

moral of the story: a bad operationalization is worse than nothing. I had to leave the market unresolved longer to do a bunch of calculations/linguistics, and the result is no less arbitrary

bought Ṁ15 of YES

arb

bought Ṁ20 of YES

pls arb

I don't think that's possible, the markets are measuring different things. Consider two possibilities:

  1. You're guaranteed to have 2 gfs.

  2. You'll either have 1 or 3 gfs with equal probability.

In either case, the linear market should be at 2. But this market should be 67% in the first case and 69% in the second case.

The difference between the two markets is related to the variance of your gf number.

> 3 gf = 9:1 = 90% This doesn't seem to match the formula, do you mean "3 gf = 8:1"?
oh u right
just @noumena currently
predicted NO

@Sinclair Any updates?

I'm dating @noumena and @ctat.
A couple weeks ago I became more active about asking people out. I have a few people in the top of the dating funnel although with low conversion. Now I need to work on D1 (first date) retention.

bought Ṁ6 of NO
~3 is a bit optimistic though it might not be if I had info on number of your current partners
@Sinclair want to go on a date?
@adele sure haha