This market resolves PROB according to this formula:
2^(# gfs) = odds, then convert odds to probability
0 gf = 1:1 = 50%
1 gf = 2:1 = 67%
2 gf = 4:1 = 80%
3 gf = 8:1 = 88%
4 gf = 16:1 = 94%
A gf is a girlfriend/boyfriend/enbyfriend
Sex friends / cuddle friends count as 0.5 of a gf.
If I am uncertain whether I'm dating someone, I'll add count them as a fractional gf
Details: I'm poly. I usually don't date people seriously, but I want to.
This question is asking about how many gfs I have concurrently on the last day of this year (not the total this year)
More readable version (pls arb):
1,000
3.00ok I realize my wording was ambiguous, but I'm counting "cuddle friend" as requiring emotional intimacy beyond mere friendship.
its the more common meaning according to twitter poll and it's also what I intended.
anyways, 1 gf and 1 cuddle friend (90% prob) brings the final score to 1.45 (= 73.2%)
kind of a weird result. I felt like I was getting more love than that last year.
there were a few people I saw regularly-ish, who in aggregate probably count but individually don't.
also too much depends on DTR before or after new years
moral of the story: a bad operationalization is worse than nothing. I had to leave the market unresolved longer to do a bunch of calculations/linguistics, and the result is no less arbitrary
pls arb
I don't think that's possible, the markets are measuring different things. Consider two possibilities:
You're guaranteed to have 2 gfs.
You'll either have 1 or 3 gfs with equal probability.
In either case, the linear market should be at 2. But this market should be 67% in the first case and 69% in the second case.
The difference between the two markets is related to the variance of your gf number.