How many lovers will Sinclair have at the end of 2022? (logit(p) = # of gf)
80%
chance
This market resolves PROB according to this formula:
2^(# gfs) = odds, then convert odds to probability
0 gf = 1:1 = 50%
1 gf = 2:1 = 67%
2 gf = 4:1 = 80%
3 gf = 9:1 = 90%
4 gf = 16:1 = 94%
A gf is a girlfriend/boyfriend/enbyfriend
Sex friends / cuddle friends count as 0.5 of a gf.
If I am uncertain whether I'm dating someone, I'll add count them as a fractional gf.
Details: I'm poly. I usually don't date people seriously, but I want to.
To clarify: this question is asking about how many gfs I have concurrently on the last day of this year, not asking how many total this year
May 19, 3:36pm: Edit: 3gf = 8:1 = 88%
> 3 gf = 9:1 = 90%
This doesn't seem to match the formula, do you mean "3 gf = 8:1"?
oh u right
just @noumena currently
Rai bought M$6 of NO9 days ago
~3 is a bit optimistic though it might not be if I had info on number of your current partners
