🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035?

Israel Israel-Hamas Conflict Palestine Religion Demographics

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Ṁ600

resolved May 29

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Resolved

N/A

More than 60% Jewish

Resolved

N/A

55%–59.9% Jewish

Resolved

N/A

50%–54.9% Jewish

Resolved

N/A

45%–49.9% Jewish

Resolved

N/A

40%–44.9% Jewish

Resolved

N/A

Below 40% Jewish

This question considers the combined population of Israel and the Palestinian territories, including any territories annexed by these states. It will be resolved using data from the CIA World Factbook as available on 31 December 2035.

For context, according to the CIA World Factbook consulted on 29 May 2024:

Israel (including the Golan Heights): 9,402,617 inhabitants, 73.5% Jewish (2022 est.).
West Bank (including Israeli settlements): 3,243,369 inhabitants, 12-14% Jewish (2012 est.).
Gaza Strip: 2,141,643 inhabitants, 0% Jewish (2012 est.).
Total: 14,787,629 inhabitants, 49.6% Jewish (using 13% for the West Bank).

Please note that estimates vary. For instance, Israeli demographer Arnon Soffer, a professor of geography at Haifa University, estimated the Jewish proportion in Israel and Palestine at between 46% and 47% in 2022. Combining various sources, Wikipedia gives, as of May 2024, the population of Israel/Palestine combined as 50.7% Jewish. Again, the only source for this question will be the CIA World Factbook (or its successor).

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DanboughtṀ50More than 60% Jewish NO

This probably would have been better structured as a "choose one" outcome so the probabilities automatically sum to 100.

@DanMan314 Ah good point. I guess there's no way to change this now? Or can mods do that? (or close the question and reopen a new one)

@mods can N/A this so you get your mana back and you can recreate.

@DanMan314 If you think it makes sense then I'm happy to do that.

@adssx I think it makes sense (and would lead to the options being much better priced)! N/Aing this now. You can duplicate the market here, and N/Aing the market gets you a refund on the cost of this one.

(to be clear if you disagree lmk and it can be undone)

@Bayesian Done, thanks for your help: https://manifold.markets/adssx/-what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj

@Bayesian This old question is still recommended ("Related in Israel") on some other pages. Is there any way to stop that or is it a normal behavior to recommend a closed hidden question?