Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the timeframe in which the Alliance for Open Media (AOMedia) officially publishes the finalized, non-draft AV2 specification and bitstream.

More than one option can resolve as YES.

Conditions for YES:

• Verification: The final release must be confirmed via official channels, such as the AOMedia Blog, the AV2 Specification Site (transitioning from "Draft" to final), the AOMediaCodec GitHub, or Wikipedia, according to the judgment of the creator, who will not bet in this market.

Background

AV2 is AV1's successor. It is an open codec used to compress video efficiently.

• The Original Target: In September 2025, AOMedia officially announced that the finalized AV2 specification would be released by the end of the year.

• Current Status: The 2025 deadline was missed. Currently, only the draft specification (published January 5, 2026) and the experimental AVM research codebase are available. The industry is still waiting for the finalized 1.0 standard.

• Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If AV2 is not published within any of the listed timeframes, all options will resolve as NO. The answer option 'start of 2027 or later, or never' is not valid — options cannot include 'or later, or never' phrasing.

• Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "start of 2027 or later, or never" answer option will not resolve YES if AV2 is published after Q4 2026. Instead, if AV2 is not published by end of 2026, Q4 2026 resolving as NO is considered sufficient coverage of that outcome. This option is considered redundant and ambiguous.