Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Meta Platforms Inc. either:

• Officially announces the shutdown of Threads, ceasing its operations entirely.

• Merges Threads with another Meta-owned platform, such that Threads ceases to exist as an independent service.

Official announcements from Meta, as reported by reputable news outlets or Meta's official communications channels, will serve as the primary sources for resolution.

Background

Threads is a social media platform launched by Meta in July 2023, designed to offer a space for real-time conversations, similar to Twitter. It quickly became the fastest-growing consumer application, reaching over 100 million users within five days. (finance.yahoo.com)

However, the platform faced challenges in maintaining user engagement. By August 2023, daily active users had declined significantly, with reports indicating a drop of over 80% from its peak. (time.com)

In April 2024, Meta temporarily suspended Threads in Turkey following an interim order from the Turkish Competition Authority, which raised concerns over data-sharing practices between Threads and Instagram. (usnews.com)

Despite these challenges, Meta has continued to invest in Threads, introducing new features and expanding its availability. As of July 2024, the platform reported over 175 million monthly active users. (washingtonpost.com)

Considerations

• Regulatory Challenges: The temporary shutdown in Turkey highlights potential regulatory hurdles that could impact Threads' operations in other regions.

• User Engagement: Sustaining user interest and engagement remains a challenge, as evidenced by the significant drop in daily active users shortly after launch.

• Competitive Landscape: Threads operates in a competitive market, contending with established platforms like Twitter (now X) and emerging alternatives.

Traders should monitor Meta's official communications and reputable news sources for any announcements regarding the future of Threads.