Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, any country announces a major climate-related relocation policy involving the planned movement of an entire town or community due to climate change impacts. The announcement must be made through official government channels and reported by reputable news organizations. The policy must specify the intent to relocate a community as a direct response to climate-related threats such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, or other environmental changes attributed to climate change. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Climate-induced relocations have been increasingly considered as a response to environmental threats. For instance, in November 2022, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced a $135 million commitment to support the relocation of tribal communities affected by climate change. This initiative aimed to assist communities like Newtok Village and the Native Village of Napakiak in Alaska, as well as the Quinault Indian Nation in Washington, in moving to safer locations due to severe environmental threats. (doi.gov)

Similarly, Indonesia has initiated plans to relocate its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan, partly due to Jakarta's vulnerability to flooding and land subsidence. The new capital is envisioned as a sustainable city to address these environmental challenges. (worldcrunch.com)

These examples illustrate the growing trend of governments implementing relocation policies in response to climate change impacts.

Considerations

• Definition of "Major" Relocation Policy: For the purposes of this market, a "major" relocation policy refers to the planned movement of an entire town or community, not just individual properties or small groups of buildings.

• Official Announcements: The policy must be officially announced by a national government and reported by reputable news organizations to be considered valid for this market.

• Timing: The announcement must occur on or before December 31, 2025, regardless of when the actual relocation is scheduled to take place.

• Scope: The policy must be a direct response to climate change impacts, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, or other environmental changes attributed to climate change.