MANIFOLD
Which AI company will have the highest-ranked Super Bowl LX ad on USA TODAY Ad Meter?
11
Ṁ250Ṁ378
resolved Feb 9
100%18%
Amazon (Rufus, Alexa)
6%
OpenAI (ChatGPT)
47%
Anthropic (Claude)
8%
Google (Gemini)
4%
Microsoft (Copilot)
4%
xAI (Grok)
4%
Meta (Llama)
3%
Apple (Siri)
3%
Perplexity AI
4%Other

Some AI model companies have begun advertising during the Super Bowl, and ad “popularity” is commonly measured using USA TODAY’s Ad Meter, a long-running and widely cited ranking of in-game Super Bowl commercials based on viewer ratings.

This market asks which company will have the highest-ranked in-game Super Bowl commercial according to the official USA TODAY Ad Meter results for this year’s Super Bowl.

This market is intentionally limited to AI model or AI assistant brands and excludes hardware, autonomous vehicles, and unrelated consumer products. No META glasses, no Waymo.

Resolution rules

  1. Source of truth: The official USA TODAY Ad Meter rankings for this year’s Super Bowl.

  2. Only paid, in-game commercials that appear in the Ad Meter rankings count.

  3. The AI model or assistant brand must be the primary subject of the ad, not a passing feature mention.

  4. If a company has multiple eligible ads, use that company’s highest-ranked ad.

  5. The market resolves to the company whose eligible ad ranks highest overall among the listed options.

  6. If no eligible AI model company appears in the Ad Meter rankings, the market resolves to None.

The 2026 Super Bowl Ad Meter winner will be announced live and on admeter.usatoday.com the morning after the game, Monday, Feb 9, 2026.

Market close timing: Sat, Feb 7, 2026 (before game day)

Update on Sun, Feb 8, at 4:44PM: I discovered that the market description contained conflicting close times (Feb 7 pre-game vs Feb 8 late evening) during the Super Bowl. Since allowing trading during or after the game would create an information advantage, I am closing the market immediately and treating Feb 7 (pre-game) as the effective close time.

This choice preserves informational fairness for all traders. Apologies for the confusion, and thanks for understanding.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ148
2Ṁ43
3Ṁ31
4Ṁ1
Sort by:

Amazon at #11. Next was Google at #22

Update on Sun, Feb 8, at 4:44PM: I discovered that the market description contained conflicting close times (Feb 7 pre-game vs Feb 8 late evening) during the Super Bowl. Since allowing trading during or after the game would create an information advantage, I am closing the market immediately and treating Feb 7 (pre-game) as the effective close time. This choice preserves informational fairness for all traders. Apologies for the confusion, and thanks for understanding.

The 2026 Super Bowl Ad Meter winner will be announced live and on admeter.usatoday.com the morning after the game, Monday, Feb 9, 2026.

My top pick is Google (gemini) and second would be Amazon (rufus) because both companies have established marketing chops and top agencies. Also, they'd benefit from extending their consumer brands in the mass market.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy