If Gavin Newsom runs in the Democratic Primary in 2024, will he be the Democratic nominee?
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If Gavin Newsom does not run in the Democratic Primary, this market resolves to N/A.

Otherwise, this market resolves "Yes" if he is the Democratic Nominee and "No" otherwise.

If he runs as an independent without having sought the Democratic Nomination, this market resolves "N/A". If he loses in the Democratic Primary and runs as an independent, this market resolves "No".

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If he does run, it would almost certainly be in a world in which Biden is unable to run, so Newsom's competition would be weak.

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