Background

Levada Center is a Russian polling organisation. Each month, it conducts an opinion poll on the approval of the authorities, which includes the question “Do you approve the activities of V. Putin as the President of Russia?”

Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has ranged from 80% to 83% so far in 2023.

Resolution criteria

The market will resolve YES if Vladimir Putin’s approval rating is higher than 83% in any opinion poll published by the Levada Center in 2023.

The market will resolve NO if the Levada Center does not publish an opinion poll in which Vladimir Putin’s approval rating is higher than 83% in 2023.

There are no foreseeable circumstances in which this market would resolve N/A. (Should the Levada Center fail to measure Vladimir Putin’s approval rating between now and the end of the year, the market will resolve NO.)

Close date

Trading will be suspended ahead of the Levada Center’s September poll on the approval of the authorities.

Should Vladimir Putin’s approval rating exceed 83% in September, the market will resolve YES. Should his approval rating fail to exceed 83% in September, trading will then resume until it is suspended again ahead of the October poll; this process will repeat until Vladimir Putin’s approval rating exceeds 83% or the year comes to an end (whichever occurs first).

Ethics

I shall not bet in this market.