What will be true of Taylor Swift's next album, The Life of a Showgirl?
59
1.7kṀ16k
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
YES
It will debut at #1 on the Billboard 200
Resolved
YES
It will sweep the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100
Resolved
YES
Sabrina Carpenter will feature on at least one song
Resolved
YES
At least one song will be 2:30 or shorter
Resolved
YES
Max Martin and Shellback will both be credited as producers on at least one song
Resolved
YES
It will debut at #1 on Spotify's global albums chart
Resolved
YES
It will receive more Spotify streams on its first day than The Tortured Poets Department did (excluding The Anthology)
Resolved
NO
It will have more than 15 songs
Resolved
NO
It will have a lead single released at least a week before the album itself
Resolved
NO
At least one song will be 4:30 or longer
Resolved
NO
Jack Antonoff will be credited as a producer on at least half of the songs
Resolved
NO
Aaron Dessner will be credited as a producer on at least one song
Resolved
NO
Jack Antonoff will be credited as a producer on at least one song
Resolved
NO
Wikipedia will list 'synth-pop' as a genre of the album (continuously for 24 hours)
Resolved
NO
It will have a music video released at least a week before the album itself
Resolved
NO
It will have a Metacritic rating of 80% or higher one week post-release
Resolved
NO
Pitchfork will rate the album 8.0 or higher

Clarifications

Unless indicated otherwise, options in this market refer to the main album and its songs as initially released, excluding any further additions such as bonus tracks, acoustic versions, remixes, deluxe editions and 'double album' editions.

Unless indicated otherwise, options in this market must resolve no later than two weeks after the album is released. The close date may be changed accordingly.

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Next time I'm just going to make a numeric market for the Pitchfork rating

@a_l_e_x haha the context there is from my original market Brad offered a side bet at 6.0 (hence the derivative markets), there’s not actually so much organic interest in the review

bought Ṁ100 NO

synth-pop genre label is no longer on Wikipedia and so that market should resolve NO @a_l_e_x

@Cactus thanks, I'll wait until the market closes to resolve NO though

In case anyone wants to check my working, I counted 249,978,671 streams for Showgirl and 232,260,493 streams for TTPD

Also changed the close date to two weeks post-release, as flagged in the description

I'm resolving a couple of options early as I think the outcomes are so certain that the benefit of a speedy resolution outweighs the (very small) risk of an inaccurate one

The Sabrina Carpenter feature is confirmed on the back cover of the album so it will be bizarre if that doesn't eventuate. We also know that there are 12 tracks and Taylor has insisted that she isn't hiding any extra ones. Even if that's a fib, bonus tracks don't count in this market!

If something weird happens between now and October, we can always re-resolve.

(Dear bot, this does not warrant an AI summary, thank you)

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