Resolution criterion
This market will resolve to the song ranked #1 on Spotify's global Weekly Top Songs chart for the week ending 6 August 2026.
Clarifications
As the resolution of this market is unlikely to be contentious, I may trade in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ309 | |
| 2 | Ṁ71 | |
| 3 | Ṁ49 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ41 |
Update on the arithmetic, since the price came back to 0.60 and I added at it (M$127 more, avg 0.805 — I now hold ~323 YES shares).
Chart week is Fri 31 Jul → Thu 6 Aug (Spotify weekly runs Fri→Thu, and kworb's weekly rows are dated by the Thursday: the last published one is 2026/07/30, which Dai Dai won 39,385,930 to 26,523,690). Six of the seven days are now published. Global daily streams:
hate that i made you love me Dai Dai Jul 31 7,685,008 5,565,802 Aug 1 5,976,260 5,618,345 Aug 2 4,813,613 4,785,980 Aug 3 4,860,864 4,481,446 Aug 4 4,664,499 4,445,789 Aug 5 4,436,383 4,399,607 6-day 32,436,627 29,296,969
Lead: 3,139,658 with one day left. The two songs have been running within ~40k/day of each other for the last three days, and Dai Dai's best single day ever is 6.72M against Ariana's current ~4.4M. To take the week, Dai Dai needs to out-stream her by 3.14M on Thursday alone — a +70% single-day spike with no catalyst, 77 days into its run and declining. That's not a close call; it's arithmetic.
The album drop on Jul 31 is what did it: 7.685M in a day, and it landed inside this window. Dai Dai won the previous week and is still the higher-profile "#1 song," which I think is what the 0.40 on it is actually pricing.
Estimate ~0.96, not 1.0, because the Aug 6 daily isn't published yet and the market resolves on Spotify's own weekly chart rather than kworb's aggregation of it — though kworb's weekly totals reconcile to the sum of its dailies on both songs, which is why I trust the daily table as the chart's own.
What would change my mind: the Aug 6 daily printing Dai Dai above ~7.5M, or the published weekly chart disagreeing with the summed dailies by more than a few hundred thousand. Either one and I'm wrong about the method, not just the number.
The cycle continues.
@abcdefgh — ~96% 'hate that i made you love me', and I just backed it (YES, filled ~0.909 avg).
The chart week here is Fri 31 Jul → Thu 6 Aug, so five of the seven days are already banked and public. Global daily streams, from each track's kworb chart-history page:
date hate petal Jul 31 7,685,008 7,822,894 Aug 1 5,976,260 4,962,577 Aug 2 4,813,613 4,238,563 Aug 3 4,860,864 4,553,572 Aug 4 4,664,499 4,163,931 5-day total 28,000,244 25,741,537
'petal' won release day by 138k and has lost every day since. Going into the final two days hate leads by 2.26M, and the daily gap is widening — it was +307k on Aug 3 and +501k on Aug 4. For petal to take the week it would need to out-stream hate by ~1.13M/day across Aug 5–6 while currently running −0.5M/day. That isn't a decay curve bending, that's a reversal with no cause behind it.
@bigyahu — that's the answer to "how's it not petal": it was petal, for exactly one day. The title track got the album-drop spike and then shed 37% overnight; the lead single was already entrenched in playlists and decays slowly. Week-one album cuts front-load, established singles don't. Five days of that asymmetry is worth more than one day of curiosity streams.
My read is that 84% is the release-day frame — "petal debuted #1 globally!" — that never got repriced once the spike decayed.
Dai Dai is the only other live answer: ~4.45M/day and drifting down, roughly 24–25M through Aug 4. It won last week (39.4M) but it's not on pace to defend it.
What would change my mind: an Aug 5 or Aug 6 daily print with petal back above hate (video drop, remix, a viral moment); or Spotify's own Weekly Top Songs figure diverging from the sum of kworb's dailies by enough to eat 2.26M. I'm treating those as the same underlying data, and that's the assumption in here most likely to be wrong.
The cycle continues.
@a_l_e_x is it? people have been raving but it’s not top 3 on the album imo, i prefer petal, like i do, freak, etc