Background

The Financial Times and other media outlets have claimed that a plane carrying European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen had to circle Plovdiv Airport for an hour due to alleged Russian GPS interference on 31 August.

Flightradar24, however, noted that the duration of the flight was only nine minutes longer than expected, and the transponder "reported good GPS signal quality from take-off to landing."

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at the end of 2025, the preponderance of evidence suggests that:

• the flight carrying Ursula von der Leyen on 31 August was affected by GPS interference;

• the GPS interference was conducted by or on behalf of the Russian Federation; and

• the plane landed in Plovdiv more than 50 minutes later than it would have if not for the GPS interference.

This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.

Close date

This market will close at 22:00:00 UTC on 31 December 2025.

Further information

I will not trade in this market.