An acquittance mentioned a reluctance to travel to the US for a conference because it is two days before the US election (1 – 3 November 2024), and they think there might be an increased risk of violence. Relatedly, others also think the potentially higher risk of violence will make the trip less comfortable (e.g., security checks, unsafe feeling on the streets, etc.). Since we have a lot of faith in Manifold this market might be reassuring or not.

This market will resolve as YES if there is one or more incident of election-related violence with more than 5 major injuries in the Boston metro area in the week between 28 October and 11 November).

Obviously, "election-related" is in part based on my subjective judgement, but I will look at the incident's Wikipedia page and/or news media to see if the primary motivation was somehow election-related.