If I organize Manifold Model UN, how many people will want to play?
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
12

For context, see this Substack post and discussion on Discord.

Resolves N/A if Manifold Model UN isn't organized or I'm not involved with it.

Close date updated to 2023-01-31 8:59 pm

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a avatar
araepredicted LOWER

I'm including both Martin Randall (said he wanted to join) and @JuJumper (expressed interest but hasn't joined the Discord)

a avatar
araepredicted LOWER at 40%

I'm going to resolve this based on how many players there are at the end of the month.

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araepredicted LOWER at 40%

@JuJumper do you have a Discord account? We're organizing on the Manifold discord server?

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FairlyRandomBot

@a your random number is: 1

Salt: k1Fct4sZNoANC4s7VOYD, round: 2653592 (signature 895fb66991cd64bbf232c192532ca4cc5262eac0b68425f5b6f2b7fa41404eb9156e028bb57612c84e4735c79e462e5409fc3792b43cb3f97770753ba33a6a6cea692065d12ceb97b3f1a94c6daa8c6a3fd2d15e9c4354ecfa8f87f6ea7f6e80)

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FairlyRandomBot

@a you asked for a random integer between 1 and 4, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2653590 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2653592, salt: k1Fct4sZNoANC4s7VOYD.

a avatar
araepredicted LOWER at 39%

Picking a random dictator (1 = Austin, 2 = Дмитрий Зеленский, 3 = Timothy Currie, 4 = Isaac King)

a avatar
araepredicted LOWER at 39%
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FairlyRandomBot

@a your random number is: 1

Salt: nL98fjJ7N6IBm4KkFiqP, round: 2653582 (signature 85bcffe743ce4cb25d2374a25868902f93aa41e393f5d603e0dd080488354d4244999182c7df542848ecac961ba93d220f721c62ef9be433d2c3825896dfbb84507c50f705b6bd6df606ec5814b28dda57dd80766ebc64d92192daa7d4692b99)

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FairlyRandomBot

Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N

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FairlyRandomBot

@a you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2653580 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2653582, salt: nL98fjJ7N6IBm4KkFiqP.

a avatar
araepredicted LOWER at 39%

@FairlyRandom 5

(picking futarchy player to reassign to democracy - 1 = Zoli, 2 = RiverBellamy, 3 = Jack, 4 = Milli, 5 = JuJumper)

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araepredicted LOWER at 39%
a avatar
araepredicted LOWER at 39%

@a actually I think I can make this work without reassigning any of the futarchy people, at least not yet

a avatar
araebought Ṁ100 of LOWER

I just realized that this market will be pushed higher because if there aren't enough players for me to organize it it resolves N/A...

So far only 2 people have said they wanted to play, which isn't nearly enough. I think if there are 5-7 people it could be made to work.

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arae

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@a I'd be interested in being the (a? Maybe there should be multiple, to take out the variance of one bad decision?) dictator.

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araesold Ṁ31 of LOWER

@IsaacKing So far there are 4 prospective dictators and 6 prospective futarchy citizens; I might force some people to form a democracy.

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Isaac King

@a Yeah I thought that might happen. Democracy is the boring one.

What if people were just assigned randomly?

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araepredicted LOWER at 36%

@IsaacKing Random assignment could work for democracy and futarchy, but being a dictator is a higher time commitment since you have to come up with policies on your own, so I don't want to make anyone a dictator who doesn't explicitly want it.

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Isaac King

@a Randomly pick a dictator from among the people who offered to be a dictator, randomly assign the rest to democracy and futarchy.

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Дмитрий Зеленскийpredicted HIGHER at 39%

@a Just in case it works like that, I'll mark myself as one of those who voted for dictatorship! 😂 Futarchy vs. dictatorship may still be interesting.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

Hang on I have a better idea. We have three dictatorships, each of which is determined by one of the modes of government being tested.

  • One dictator is determined by a vote among everyone playing the game.

  • One dictator is determined by prediction markets on who would be the most successful dictator.

  • One dictator is determined by fiat by @a, as the game organizer.

a avatar
araepredicted LOWER at 39%

@IsaacKing I have very few priors about who would make a good dictator, so I would probably pick randomly for my fiat anyway. I think we'll get more information for a prediction market on who will be a successful dictator after the game has begun, so it would be best to start with just the elected dictator and the random dictator, and add the third one later.

(I like that this lets more people be dictators, though, which is apparently popular!)

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

Dude one of my buddy's hosts a HUGE model UN conference in Chicago for high schoolers in February, maybe March called CIMUN. I think we should organize it for them. It's like 5,000 high school kids. They will probably even pay us. I am totally serious I already pitched this to @SirSalty a few months back.

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SirSalty

@BTE I would still be open to exploring this further. If you wanted to intro email me to them that would be great!

They are the experts at organising them so I don't think it would make sense for us to take that portion of it on. But if there is a way to incorporate Manifold that would enhance the experience then I am all for that!