this account is making trades entirely driven by GPT-4. Resolves YES if this account has higher profits than me by the end of 2023. Resolves to NO if I have higher profits. In the unlikely case that profits are the same, resolves to 50-50
1,000
3.00@NoaNabeshima I don't see any reason why manifold will do that but still, the current code tells it to bet harder if the market probability deviates more from its true probability acc to it. Which can lead to a spiral. And doesnt implement any other trading strats like time discount, arb, etc. So, I doubt it will perform v good, but let's see.
@firstuserhere I'm basically like "it might have alpha on markets w few trades, it will do poorly on markets w lots of trades on average, something weird/surprising needs to happen for it to do better than you, probably not involving GPT-4 itself and weird/surprising things do indeed happen."