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What is/will be the source of these metrics? How much visibility can I expect into the methodology behind them? I would take "if you can't figure that out then bet at your own risk" as an answer.
I'm aware that David Chee put something in his year-end public post to the effect "some OpenAI employees are on Manifold" but he also said "OpenAI employees I'd love to hear from you" so to my mind that's a wash. OTOH over the weeks I've ruled out the possibility that everyone here works at OpenAI except me. These metrics, such as they may be, also would be shown to investors and potential investors. Are they looking to host ads or anything?
@ClubmasterTransparent If it turns out that there are no metrics we can use and a few emails back and forth with openAI don't solve it, i'll have to N/A. That doesn't mean that we can't bet on it.
@firstuserhere OK then! Appreciate the candid response. Happy to proceed on the assumption that you @firstuserhere -- clearly emotionally invested here and always behaves kindly as far as I see -- have a backchannel that can provide you these metrics plus the assumptions behind them, and also you are confident the back channel will give you solid information.