Will retention metrics at the end of 1 month for GPT store be absolutely abysmal?
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resolved Mar 14
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I feel in spirit that the GPT store is unimpressive and won't lead to anything much.

But how will we resolve this market? I don't even know if usage data is available anywhere. What's a good retention % for a GPT?

@Coagulopath fair enough

This may be a stupid question but are you referring to the retention metrics of use of the store itself, or retention metrics of the GPTs on the store?

Define "absolutely abysmal".

predicted YES

Not beefing, it's on me, but what a dumb bet I made. I thought GPT Store was for GPT merch. Hundred percent retention metrics would be below the abyss if they were hawking golf hats and onesies with "Keep Calm And Ask GPT.'

predicted YES

This question is not so much "will GPT store be a flopola in floptown" as "if GPT store is a flopola in floptown, will they admit it."

bought Ṁ2 of YES

What is/will be the source of these metrics? How much visibility can I expect into the methodology behind them? I would take "if you can't figure that out then bet at your own risk" as an answer.

I'm aware that David Chee put something in his year-end public post to the effect "some OpenAI employees are on Manifold" but he also said "OpenAI employees I'd love to hear from you" so to my mind that's a wash. OTOH over the weeks I've ruled out the possibility that everyone here works at OpenAI except me. These metrics, such as they may be, also would be shown to investors and potential investors. Are they looking to host ads or anything?

@ClubmasterTransparent If it turns out that there are no metrics we can use and a few emails back and forth with openAI don't solve it, i'll have to N/A. That doesn't mean that we can't bet on it.

predicted YES

@firstuserhere OK then! Appreciate the candid response. Happy to proceed on the assumption that you @firstuserhere -- clearly emotionally invested here and always behaves kindly as far as I see -- have a backchannel that can provide you these metrics plus the assumptions behind them, and also you are confident the back channel will give you solid information.

@firstuserhere Still though. You would need to at least define what abysmal means.

Context is the tweet in the description

@firstuserhere i can't see the tweet

EDIT: nevermind

@duck_master Here is a screenshot:

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