Historical data shows that Galatasaray and Manchester United played against each other 5 times (2 Wins for each and 3 Draws). Nevertheless, 

 has 27% of the starting team players injured, while 

 has no key players suspended, injured, or outside predictions that would affect the team's performance.

 a 7% chance to Draw, and a 38% chance of Manchester United winning.

Also, the odds of this particular bet in Manifold are great, with a potential +424.6% payout for 

The potential to gain from voting YES is very high when assessing a reasonable outcome from the historical data, current market conditions & expectations of the match when considering the key player's suspension or injury. Hence, it's reasonable to bet 

 for Galatasaray's win against Manchester United and profit from the bet.

 United have been poor this season, across the board. Their form has undoubtedly been impacted by the unimaginably high number of injuries they have had thus far this season, as you allude to. They will also be without misfiring, but key, winger Rashford who was the club's top scorer across all competitions last season, compounding their struggles on the pitch. 

In each of their last 5 matches, United have struggled to win. Both wins in this period have come via late goals (both 1-0 wins) and underscore their inability to score goals. Contrastingly, they have conceded 10 goals in the other 3 matches, losing all of them. More damning is that one of these losses came against arguably the weakest team in their UCL group - a 4-3 loss. By contrast, Galatasaray have lost 2 and won 3 of their last 5, with both losses coming against Bayern who are far and away the best team in the UCL group. They are showing considerably more fight and have a significant home advantage against United (their home matches are notoriously hostile towards the away players, something which surprisingly impacts players psychologically). 

As United's problems and injuries continue to pile up, they face their most important and toughest test yet in the group, as they currently face elimination. Gala, however, can look at their home advantage and the fact that they were able to beat United in England a few weeks ago for the confidence to approach the game, and I do agree with you that it would be a surprise should they lose. 

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