By 2028, given a one-page description of a task X, AI can download and fine-
tune existing open source LLMs for X?
Basic
7
Ṁ942028
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Given a one-page description of the task, download and fine- tune an existing open source LLM, without more input from humans.
The fine-tune must improve the performance of the LLM on some predetermined benchmark metric.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
65% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
52% chance
By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?
75% chance
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
20% chance
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?
62% chance
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
64% chance
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
74% chance
Will an AI Tutor (LLM personalized for each student) replace conventional teaching by 2035?
61% chance
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
74% chance