Will Vix hit 100 for at least 30 cumulative days by 2034?
Mini
9
แน€298
2034
11%
chance

In this mostly excellent podcast (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EY2nbAVZB-k&ab_channel=DwarkeshPatel), Tyler Cowen predicts that the VIX index of volatility will eventually get out of control as AI develops.

This resolves to YES if there are at least 30 cumulative scheduled trading days, between now and January 1, 2034, in which VIX Index closes at 100 or higher.

If there is a day in which the market was scheduled to open but does not as a result of the actions causing volatility, that day counts if the market either had its last close above 100, or when it reopens it reopens above 100.

This also resolves YES if the market is closed indefinitely without reopening, and it is clear that VIX would be trading above 100 if the market was open.

This resolves to NO otherwise.

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