Will Vix have a median close above 30 in 2033?
7
231
170
2034
28%
chance

In this mostly excellent podcast (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EY2nbAVZB-k&ab_channel=DwarkeshPatel), Tyler Cowen predicts that the VIX index of volatility will eventually get out of control as AI develops.

This is a second attempt to interpret what that might mean.

This resolves to YES if in 2033, the VIX Index closes above 30 more often than it closes at or below 30. Days when the market is scheduled to be open but it is closed count as above 30 if either the last market close of VIX was above 30, or the market's next close of VIX is above 30, or the market remains closed indefinitely through the end of 2033 and extending beyond January 15, 2034, or otherwise the world has changed that this question lacks all meaning.

This resolves to NO otherwise.

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