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MANIFOLD
Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?
122
Ṁ1kṀ22k
resolved Aug 10
Resolved
NO

There will be a stream for Opus 5 Jul 30 at 3pm eastern from Epoch, similar to previous ones for Sol, as per Epoch AI (@EpochAIResearch) on X at https://t.co/kusf1SFlAA

Resolves YES if, as per my judgment, once the experiments are both done, I believe Opus 5 has outperformed Sol.

Resolves NO if I think Sol outperforms Opus.

Resolves to 50% if I think that it is a true tie / fully ambiguous who is better.

  • Update 2026-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not err on the side of an ambiguous (50%) resolution. They intend to make a definitive YES or NO judgment even if the outcome is close, rather than resolving to 50%.

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Any reason this is not a NO?

@ZviMowshowitz nah seems pretty clear lgtm to resolve NO

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 29% order

Claude loves Demon Form I'm cooked

So far, Sol has climbed up on stream to A9 Ironclad with 9 deaths total, and A6 Silent with 4 deaths
We will see how Opus fares later today. Stream starts at 12:30 pacific time at twitch.tv/epochaiplays

@JaimeSevilla Honestly humbling since I tuned in for like 5 minutes and from that tiny sample it seems like it was struggling to make basic correct plays and yet I’m not sure I would fare much better starting out than 9 deaths to A9 so maybe I should accept how bad I am

@JaimeSevilla Damn I just got to A9 Ironclad. Sol is about to replace me

I'm amazed at how well sol is doing in absolute terms

This is trading very close to 50% so I just want to say that if you think I'm going to err on the side of ambiguous, I am not planning on doing that.

Ah I see, the description was wrong, it's tomorrow, Thursday.

@Panfilo yeah, whoops, I showed up and everything. will be there tomorrow.

Looks like they're still in a Sol build until they die or win.