Will Jorbs win his one floor a day Q1 '24 run of Slay the Spire?
27
555
510
May 2
61%
chance

Twitch streamer Jorbs is doing a Slay the Spire run on Defect, ascension 20, in which he is playing one floor per day only, spending insane amounts of time on every little decision at least so far.

Floor 0 (Whale Bonus): Paid for a rare relic, got Incense Burner

Floor 1: Got Defragment, IB on 2, no damage vs. the two grow/slow/attack guys.

This resolves to YES if Jorbs wins the run.

This resolves to NO if Jorbs fails to win the run by the deadline, either by losing or by not finishing.

If Jorbs alters his speed of play, the run still counts either way.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Since I've heard of him, I'm guessing has a >70% win-rate even playing at a normal pace.

@jskf Yes, for sure. He is a very strong favorite if we assume he is going to finish the experiment.

predicts NO

@ZviMowshowitz I find it interesting that the Implied odds of not finishing is only 2%

@ussgordoncaptain I mean those are not the real odds.

@jskf that's false, I believe very few runners have such high winrates on defect. It's a high variance character. Jorbs' usual playstyle is pretty sloppy, I would be very surprised if his defect winrate was >40%. Someone like lifecoach, who routinely spends 3+ hours on a run, calculating gametrees at each decision point and so on, has a winrate in the 70-80% range IIRC.

That said, incense burner is a pretty strong relic, which means we're in for an above average run.