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The answer was 71. Post will be out later today.

In order to make this more interesting now that I know the answer: Currently there is a clear peak from 56-61 that contains most of the probability. I can confirm that the answer IS NOT in that range.

Have fun!

@ZviMowshowitz

I thought it was overconfident, but then I went through the list and got 61 myself when the predicted value was exactly 60.98 so I only adjusted it a bit

I wish there were a way to buy "about right, but higher variance". Buying a wide range is apparently guaranteed negative payout:

and I just tried to broaden the range by buying above and below the current range, but that just created a bimodal distribution even though I only bought a relatively small number of shares?

I'm not sure if this is a problem with the market format or I just suck at this.

@DanMan314

if you buy a range that makes up 99% of the prob mass, but each option is below 10%, fees at 10% are ~5% of M spent, so u pay 5%+ in fees but can only earn 1% when betting on a range with 99% prob mass, so guaranteed losses of ~4%. For now I recommend betting on smaller ranges, but works poorly when markets have low liquidity, which they do by default. More at

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/915138780653051910/1238007611027357697

I have not finished going through it so I have no idea what the answer is yet, but... this seems rather overconfident!

Clarification: I notice there is a section with predictions. I will count it as 'agree' if I think it is >50% that I would grade such a market to YES when the time comes.