MANIFOLD
What will the highest 2026 USAMO cutoff be?
28
Ṁ275Ṁ2.1k
Mar 16
394 points
expected
0.8%
Below 330
0.8%
330 - 344.5
1.1%
345 - 359.5
4%
360 - 374.5
27%
375 - 389.5
42%
390 - 404.5
22%
405 - 419.5
1.1%
420 - 434.5
0.8%
435 - 449.5
0.5%
450

Every year, there are four cutoffs for the USAMO, depending on whether the contestant took the AMC 12A or 12B, and whether the contestant took the AIME I or II. This market asks for the maximum among these four cutoffs.

Note that this year, the AMC index is calculated as AMC + 20 AIME (instead of AMC + 10 AIME), so it maxes out at 450 (instead of 300). Also there may be many cheaters on AIME, similar to what happened with AMC.

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