Will Tyler Cowen use the word "Straussian" on any new episode of "Conversations with Tyler" before June 1st?
27
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540
Jun 2
40%
chance

Tyler Cowen (GMU professor, prolific blogger, & podcaster) likes to use the (unusual) word "Straussian" in writing & conversation.

For example, from his November 2023 episode with John Gray:

COWEN: If you’re an honest reader of the book, you roll your eyes and say, “Oh, come on, is this really the message here, or is this a kind of Straussian book?” Right?

GRAY: Yes. Well, you mean it might have a hidden message, and the hidden message in this case is the obvious one.

However, his recent episode with Marilynne Robinson does not use the word.

This market resolves YES if Tyler Cowen says the word "Straussian" on any episode of the podcast "Conversations with Tyler" released between now (March 26th) and May 31st, according to the official transcripts.

Background: "Straussian" has the literal meaning "Of or relating to Leo Strauss or his philosophy" (Wikitionary), although that's not quite what Tyler means. You can find a "definition" here on his blog, and you can decide whether we are meant to take that definition at face value or find our own Straussian reading (a rabbit hole that is almost certainly not worth your time).

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bought Ṁ60 NO

Increased my 'no' bet. Thiel conversation just out. Audience question about Strauss, Thiel talks about Strauss...Tyler doesn't use the word. If he doesn't use the word there I can only assume he has a 'no' bet in this market!

@MichaelSavage Ha, If you suspect profit-motivated insider trading is going to determine the outcome, best bet is towards 50%. Cowan isn't silly and his incentives are to bet and decide whether to use it or not at the last opportunity before the deadline, based on which way it would be most profitable to move the market.

Of course there's a chance he will just forget, or isn't planning on betting at all, which probably increases the chances of NO. So I think the price is somewhat below 50%, but certainly not much lower if you actually think he's going to rig the outcome.

Remember—insider trading is legal (& encouraged), senpai is aware of this market, so place your predictions at your own risk 🫡.

The first eligible episode dropped this morning (Fareed Zakaria)—I don't see "Straussian" anywhere in the transcript. The hunt continues.