Will Trump win Iowa by >5 points AND/OR will Trump win the election?
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Plus
51
Ṁ5873
in 9 hours
30%
Trump wins Iowa by >5 points & Trump WINS the election
15%
Trump wins Iowa by >5 points & Trump LOSES the election
11%
Trump does NOT win Iowa by >5 points & Trump WINS the election
44%
Trump does NOT win Iowa by >5 points & Trump LOSES the election

This market resolves to a single option based on these two linked markets:

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bought Ṁ50 Trump does NOT win I... YES

@Nightsquared Dave Wasserman gives some evidence that Iowa might not be very correlated with even the other Midwest states in this thread:

Please consider changing the title from “AND/OR” to “AND’” as there are no “OR” options to bet on.

@JohnLynch the problem is that "Will Trump win Iowa by >5 points AND will Trump win the election?" clearly defines a single outcome—will both these things happen? That's a reasonable market to make, but it's not this one. "AND/OR" cannot be interpreted as a single event (otherwise it would be one and not the other), so it clarifies that it's testing conditionals.

I'm open to another title, but I would not switch it to just "AND". it's not a good idea to have a title that seems like it makes perfect sense without further explanation and then it turns out the market is something different.

@Ziddletwix also, of course there are OR options to bet on—you combine multiple options? that's the point of a market that specifies all the combinations, you can construct your exact AND and OR probabilities.

@Ziddletwix The title should be something like “Which of [Condition 1] and [Condition 2] will resolve true?”

As it stands, the question in the title should have a single YES/NO resolution (YES if at least one condition resolves true; NO if both conditions resolve false), rather than having multiple options.

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