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MANIFOLD
Will “The Eras Tour (Taylor’s Version)” have more streaming minutes in its first week on Disney+ than “Hamilton”?
14
Ṁ340Ṁ2.7k
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
NO

Source: the Nielsen SVOD streaming top 10: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#streaming

For "Hamilton", I will use the RatingsRyan.com Top 100 archive (which records these Nielsen SVOD numbers), and "Hamilton" earned 1.931 billion minutes of streaming during its first week (ending July 5th, 2020).

Thus, this market resolves YES if "The Eras Tour (Taylor’s Version)” earns >1.931 billion minutes of streaming during the week of March 11-17.

Details

  • "The Eras Tour" releases mid-week, so keep that in mind when betting, but note that the same is true for "Hamilton", so the comparison seems fair.

  • There's a fair bit of delay before the numbers are posted on the linked Nielsen website. If the Nielsen SVOD numbers are clearly reported elsewhere in the media beforehand, I can resolve early.

  • If for some reason I am never able to access the Nielsen SVOD numbers for "The Eras Tour", this resolves N/A (I don't see why that would happen).

  • Let me know if any aspects of resolution are unclear (new data source for me).

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Nielsen posted the ratings, only 677 million minutes, less than the 1.9B for Hamilton. Resolves NO. Check out the market for her new album sales in the first week: