**Sources**

**Resolution**

I will compare the *percentage point* difference between the probability of Kamala winning the election in the two models.

At the time of question creation, Nate Silver has Harris at 56.3%, and 538 has Harris winning 58.8% (i.e. 588 out of 1000 simulations), for a difference of 2.5% (percentage points).

This market resolves YES if the difference >7 percentage points at any point before the election.

**Context**

The models are currently quite close, but fairly recently they sharply disagreed (largely due to Nate's "convention bounce" effect). E.g. on August 29th, 538 had Kamala at ~58% while Nate had her at ~47%.

@traders AFAIK they haven't diverged by >7% since question creation at any point, so once Nate's model does its final update (which i doubt will move it much) i expect this to resolve NO. but LMK if I missed any days.