Will Taylor Swift endorse Joe Biden for president before a new movie grosses >$1 billion at the global box office?
resolved Jun 30
  • Endorsement: To avoid ambiguity, I will borrow the rules (and thus resolution) of the following market to define "endorsing Joe Biden for president": https://manifold.markets/JoshBlyskal/will-taylor-swift-endorse-joe-biden.

  • Box office: I will use BoxOfficeMojo as the source for global box office. For example, the relevant number ("WORLDWIDE", on the left) for Barbie would be (currently) $1,445,638,421 (which is larger than $1 billion).

Other details:

  • The ("new") movie has to be released after the creation date for this question (2024-02-03). E.g. if "Oppenheimer" re-releases and crosses $1B, it would not count. if "Dune: Part Two" grosses $1.1 billion, it counts.

  • If the 2024 election occurs and Taylor Swift has not endorsed Biden, this question will resolve NO, whether or not there has yet been a new $1 billion grossing movie. [1]

  • If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.

[1]. My logic here is that if there's no endorsement, the endorsement cannot happen "before" some other event (whether or not that event happens), and thus this resolves no. This is largely a pragmatic choice, it's almost certain that there will be movies in the future that gross $1 billion, so I'd rather avoid dragging this market out for any longer than is plausibly interesting.

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predicted YES

For context, Taylor swift endorsed Joe Biden in 2020 after largely being apolotical. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1242483

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