Context: https://kalshi.com/billion-dollar-bracket
Resolves YES if Kalshi announces a verified perfect bracket in the 2026 tournament. Resolves NO otherwise.
What matters here is the Kalshi verification—a perfect bracket that some other people think is verified but was not submitted to Kalshi does not count. Beyond that, I won't be a stickler for what "pay" means (this just resolves based on whether Kalshi verifies a bracket).
1,000has anyone done the naive math on the odds of a single bracket being perfect if you assume the betting line odds are accurate in a typical year? (I.e. since that’s substantially easier than the case where it’s 50/50).
(The much harder math is how much coverage you get from millions of different people submitting brackets with tons of overlap, but I assume other bracket sites have that number internally)