Resolution:

• I will define a "banger" as a tweet with 420+ likes (i.e. the number shown publicly on the tweet itself).

• Resolves YES if @jim writes multiple (2 or more) bangers on the @ManifoldMarkets Twitter account within one month of his first tweet on that account. Resolves NO if one month passes from his first tweet and there have not been 2+ bangers.

• Resolves N/A if @jim does not tweet at least once from @ManifoldMarkets by the end of March.

Details:

• Note that the tweets do not indicate their author, but I am confident I can ask @jim or staff who was behind a given tweet (and the date of his first tweet).

• 420+ likes is an arbitrary threshold, but note that it's (1) achievable (the Manifold account has had a number of tweets go way higher e.g.), but (2) difficult (most tweets on that account get very little engagement).

• Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-top-level posts count:

  • Replies qualify: Tweets that are replies (like the linked example) are valid for this market, provided they meet the banger criteria.