Will GODZILLA X KONG have the #1 daily (domestic) gross for >11 days in April?
Will GODZILLA X KONG have the #1 daily (domestic) gross for >11 days in April?
3
120Ṁ1278resolved May 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Source
I will use the "Daily Box Office For 2024" page from BoxOfficeMojo. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/2024/?view=year.
It lists the highest grossing (domestic) film for each day ("#1 Release" column).
If "GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE" (2024) is listed as the highest grossing film for 12 or more days within the month of April, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
Details
Example: in 2021 the original "Dune" is listed as the #1 film for 10 different days (spread between October & November).
Note that "Godzilla X Kong" releases March 29th—thus, its first 3 days of release (where it is #1) are not counted. (I can post a running tally in the comments sometime in early April to make this extra clear).
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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