Will "Dune: Part Two" earn more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part One" at the Academy Awards? (>10)

At the 94th Academy Awards, "Dune: Part One" was nominated for ten Oscars. This market resolves YES if "Dune: Part Two" is nominated for eleven or more or more Oscars at the 97th Academy Awards (honoring films from 2024).

For reference, here are the Oscars nominations for "Dune: Part One":

  • Best Picture

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Best Costume Design

  • Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Best Original Score

  • Best Sound

  • Best Film Editing

  • Best Cinematography

  • Best Production Design

  • Best Visual Effects

This year, "Oppenheimer" secured 13 nominations, and "Poor Things" earned 11 nominations (both greater than the tally of "Dune: Part One") while "Killers of the Flower Moon" only had 10 nominations (which is not greater than the tally of "Dune: Part One").

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I made a mega-market to predict its Oscar nominations in each individual category (trying to do my part to reduce the clutter of endless binary markets for each category!):

Related market: "Which Oscar nominations will "Dune: Part Two" receive at the 97th Academy Awards? [Mega-market]"

I think you mean "here are the Oscar nominations for "Dune: Part One"".

@houstonEuler Yup you’re right, thanks for pointing out the typo! I added the 3 categories Dune was nominated but didn’t win when copying over my other question (for wins), but missed that wording. It’s fixed now:

bought Ṁ10 NO

Has any sequel / part 2 ever received more nominations than it's lead movie?

@NeilG It happens! Not sure about the best examples off the top of my head, but e.g. Top Gun: Maverick got more nominations than Top Gun. If you extend beyond direct sequels, Fury Road got a bunch of noms and the first 3 films I assumed weren’t recognized much. (But definitely not the norm. I assumed that was the case for LotR but it was only wins, in terms of noms they didn’t increase for the final one)

@Ziddletwix yeah, I would figure back to back sequels that the sequel falls in lead movies shadow ( we've already seen this, not better than part 1, cultural moment has moved on), but that much later sequels, like Top Gun Maverick are seen as "new", with the nostalgia boost