Will "Dune: Part Two" account for >80% of the total domestic box office during its opening weekend?
resolved Mar 4

For further reference:

  • For an example of a very high %, "Spider Man: No Way Home" accounted for 92% of the box office on its opening weekend.

  • Similarly, "Dune: Part Two" has almost no competition on its opening weekend, although its projected opening is fairly low compared to most that break >80%.

  • The highest proportion for 2024 so far is 29% ("Argylle" on its opening weekend).

[1] This assumes that "Dune: Part Two" is #1 at the box office. It will, but if it somehow isn't, then this market must naturally resolve NO (it cannot be >50%), and so I won't need to compute anything further.

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Opening weekend is over, but Shai Hulud is just getting started. Here are some markets to predict the gross of "Dune: Part Two" in its second weekend. Can it repeat Oppenheimer's amazing hold? Or have all the mega fans already seen it?

bought Ṁ450 NO

Dune's actuals are up on thenumbers.com, 72% is the % of the total box office, so this resolves NO

why the late close date?

@mattyb I think I just misclicked a week later than usual (although normally i set the close date a while after i expect the numbers to be available anyways)

Let's make this more precise! I made a market to predict the exact opening weekend box office.

Related market: Exactly how much will "Dune: Part Two" gross during its (domestic) opening weekend? (% -> millions USD)

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