This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) grosses more than $42,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3003745793/ will be used to resolve this market.
For reference, the original Aquaman opened to $67.87M in 2018.
Other details:
Typically the "domestic opening" includes all of North America, as well as Thursday previews. Regardless, I will use the number cited by Box Office Mojo.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Office Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask.
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“Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” is now in theaters, playing at 3700 locations. Its Thursday previews resulted in total receipts of $4M. A 3-day weekend total ranging between $23-$26M is being eyed for the final DCEU instalment. The 4-day total is said to be anywhere between $31-36M.
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2023/12/22/7gvk9mfgdsvrp8ioanj9047qfa295v
To avoid any possible confusion:
Monday December 25th is a holiday. Some sources will include that as part of the opening weekend, some won't. This market will resolve based on the single "Domestic Opening" that BoxOfficeMojo lists on the main page for the movie (pic below shows $6.619M for "CATS").
AFAIK, this is typically the 3-day gross (including Thursday previews) for North America, and thus I expect it will exclude Monday. But I will use whatever number BoxOfficeMojo actually posts, however they compute it, rather than trying to define exactly what I personally think should be the opening weekend gross. (I don't pretend to know exactly how BOM gets their data, or computes the totals).
Opening Weekend Range: $32M-$42M
Related market: Will "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) gross >$34M on its opening weekend?
https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-2?r=WmlkZGxldHdpeA