This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) grosses more than $30,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3003745793/ will be used to resolve this market.
For reference, the original Aquaman opened to $67.87M in 2018.
Other details:
Typically the "domestic opening" includes all of North America, as well as Thursday previews. Regardless, I will use the number cited by Box Office Mojo.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Office Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask.
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@Ziddletwix The numbers were slightly revised (down to 27.7), but still highlighted blue for "estimated" for some reason.
Warner Bros’ “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” grossed an estimated $28.1M domestically over the 3-day weekend (from 3,706 locations).
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2023/12/24/a007ym0k49a11w5mxuvo93t87lo9vt
Per Deadline, the 3-day opening weekend projections for the Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom box office have deflated during a quiet Christmas Eve Sunday. Its domestic opening weekend is now estimated to turn out a result of $27.6 million, which is considerably lower than the $30.1 million total that DC's earlier 2023 flop Shazam! Fury of the Gods earned during its own opening weekend.
https://screenrant.com/aquaman-2-movie-box-office-opening-report
Yet, stateside, ‘Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’ had a less-than-royal commencement at the domestic box office, amassing $13.7 million on opening day. This figure, while significant, is a dip from the original ‘Aquaman’s’ debut, reflecting a mix of anticipation and superhero weariness among fans and critics alike.
https://bnnbreaking.com/arts/aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-rides-tidal-wave-of-global-box-office-success/
@mattyb I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on the main page of BoxOfficeMojo, however it is computed. So for the original Aquaman, that's 67.87M. BOM always lists a single "opening" number.
Informally, AFAIK, that number is typically the a 3-day weekend (including Thursday previews) for North America, which is pretty standard. So yes I am personally betting under the assumption that BOM will exclude the Monday gross from the opening weekend. (On the "weekends" tab, BOM will compute the tallies for the 3-day/4-day/etc weekends separately, but on the main page they only list one "Domestic Opening").
But that's just my understanding from looking at past holiday weekends. I'm giving this wordy response because I don't pretend to know exactly how BoxOfficeMojo gets their data, and I'm not going to try to litigate every edge case if someone disagrees with how they calculate that number.
I'll add an additional comment to these other markets, adding this extra clarification, to avoid any possible confusion.
TLDR: My understanding is that BOM will exclude Monday, but I don't personally know how they compute the #s and the market will resolve based on what they list as the "Domestic Opening".