Will "Alien: Romulus" gross more (worldwide) than than the average of "Prometheus" & "Alien: Covenant"? (>$322M)
Basic
31
30k
resolved Sep 16
Resolved
YES

Source: BoxOfficeMojo

This market resolves YES if "Alien: Romulus" (2024) grosses >$322,123,116 (worldwide) within 2 months of release (i.e. October 16th).

  • I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined ("WORLDWIDE", on the main page).

  • If the result seems mathematically certain, I reserve the right to resolve the market early.

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There won't be decent competition for a long time.

I love this movie, watched it on small screen on a random day, then I watched IMAX for three times...peak 2024 scifi graphics, soft and convincing.

the movie will be released in Japan on Sept 6th. Prometheus grossed 21m in Japan. So approximately Japan alone will contribute another 15m at least.

China reports will gross about $22m more, $114m in total.

$322m soon.

International data is several days behind. Japan has grossed 1.5m. China has passed 97.6m. to date 09/07

314m...one week to go

330m reached...super relieved sorry @polymathematic for taking so much of your mana, but I see from your page your asset accumulate fast in other questions how!

@Ziddletwix so, just to be clear, you’re planning to include actuals up to and including Wednesday, october 16, but nothing from after that? ‘Cause I think it’s at least possible that will matter to resolution…

@polymathematic For WW gross, typically I use the number displayed by BOM on that date.

I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined ("WORLDWIDE", on the main page).

That's of course imperfect, the final day (or more) of gross won't have been reported. But there's no good way to do it tbh.

For domestic, daily actuals are reported, so that's easy (I always use "all gross up through X date"). The problem is that for WW, daily actuals don't exist (except for the biggest movies in the first week or two). So there's no such thing as including the "worldwide actuals for October 22nd"—those aren't reported anywhere.

If you think it'd help, I can tweak this to include the domestic gross from exactly October 22nd in the total. I would be shocked if that mattered—I assume the domestic gross that day will be in the tens of thousands at most. So basically that would just mean I check a day later. But I can't include the international tally from that day, because it doesn't exist.

@Ziddletwix no, that makes perfect sense to me, i just wanted to make sure i understood. but were you going to go through oct 16 or oct 22? i know description says the 16th, but your comment says the 22nd.

@polymathematic Oops you’re right october 16th I just misread the market. (And that’s the extra day I’ll include)

@Ziddletwix thank you!

I dunno, ya'll seem awfully confident, but I don't see this as a 9-1 favorite. I could definitely see 2-1, which means I'm overextended anyway, but not 9-1.

@polymathematic it's mostly me. I estimate foreign will continue gross for at least two more weeks. They have less interest in deadpool stuff.