Which session at Manifest 2024 will be Manifold’s favorite? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
27
11k
Jun 17
24%
History lesson with live betting (Michael Wheatley)
11%
Fireside Chat with Nate Silver and Scott Alexander
9%
Press X to doubt: journalism edition
8%
Superbabies
6%
Homo Economicus Wannabees
5%
Neopets
4%
Aella's dance class
4%
Night market
4%
Conflict Improv
4%
Poker Tournament Finals
3%
Hard Questions for Manifold
3%
Manifold.lol
3%
Manifold Theater — Sweepstakes Mania
2%
Manifold power user / whale / creator / trader meetup
1.5%
Behind the Numbers: Eliciting Rationales to Improve Decision-making
1.5%
Modelling Manifold
1.5%Other
1.4%
Technophilic religion
1.2%
Patio11 and idol manager talk game design

This market will resolve to a poll, created after market close (EOD June 16), that will run for one week containing all the options that have been added to this market (i.e. I will not add "Other" to the poll [1]).

Add your own! The only requirements are that they be listed as a session on the official Manifest schedule (i.e. it can't just be "a fun thing that happened", and it can't be from LessOnline/Summer Camp).

I will add the poll options ranked by their probability at market close (as maybe there's some advantage to the higher seeded options if people are too lazy to look through until the end).

[1]. Note—people can still split options off from "Other", so it shouldn't necessary be 0%, just that it won't win the poll, no matter what happens.

The poll is here:

/Ziddletwix/which-session-at-manifest-2024-was

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Also, I should have clarified this edge case when making the question (although I think this is fairly obvious/uncontroversial?)—in the case of a tie, seems fairest to resolve proportionally among all sessions that tie for the most votes.

@traders The poll is up! Place your votes.

/Ziddletwix/which-session-at-manifest-2024-was

I also made a separate, external approval voting survey—here. It won't resolve any market, it's just to show your support for your favorite session. It does not require sign-in (please do not vote multiple times—honor system).

reposted

48 hours to place your bets & add your favorite sessions before i create the poll

bought Ṁ5 Poker Tournament Finals YES

In the description, I said I'd resolve this based on a Manifold poll, so obvs I'll stick with that, but it's so hard to pick just one I think I'll add a bonus separate unofficial approval voting link (that won't change resolution, but might give a better sense of what people liked)

added liquidity to make it a proper non-play market (wanted to let people add options for cheap first—awkward mechanics but seems to be the best way to do it)

@strutheo That’s a dupe (“hard questions for …”). Wanna change it to something else?

History lesson with live betting (Michael Wheatley)

It was so good

bought Ṁ150 History lesson with ... NO

a little ruined bc of people knowing the answers + selection bias (but it was a fun story / experience, and Michael did a great job). I'm planning to run one with a random US election and anonymized names at Manifest 2025, to hopefully have an even richer experience!

I like that !

reposted

Good q!