This market will resolve to a poll, created after market close (EOD June 16), that will run for one week containing all the options that have been added to this market (i.e. I will not add "Other" to the poll [1]).
Add your own! The only requirements are that they be listed as a session on the official Manifest schedule (i.e. it can't just be "a fun thing that happened", and it can't be from LessOnline/Summer Camp).
I will add the poll options ranked by their probability at market close (as maybe there's some advantage to the higher seeded options if people are too lazy to look through until the end).
[1]. Note—people can still split options off from "Other", so it shouldn't necessary be 0%, just that it won't win the poll, no matter what happens.
The poll is here:
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3.00@traders Resolves to "History lesson with live betting (Michael Wheatley)" with 5 votes—congrats to @MichaelWheatley ! (I think the video might be posted in a few weeks).
The other takeaway is that out of 23 voters, 15 sessions received a vote, so clearly there were a ton of different sessions that people loved. The informal approval poll was a three way tie between "Fireside Chat with Nate Silver", "Night Market", and "Manifold power user / whale meetup".
Thank you to everyone who put in the work to run a session! Manifest was fun.
@traders The poll is up! Place your votes.
/Ziddletwix/which-session-at-manifest-2024-was
I also made a separate, external approval voting survey—here. It won't resolve any market, it's just to show your support for your favorite session. It does not require sign-in (please do not vote multiple times—honor system).
In the description, I said I'd resolve this based on a Manifold poll, so obvs I'll stick with that, but it's so hard to pick just one I think I'll add a bonus separate unofficial approval voting link (that won't change resolution, but might give a better sense of what people liked)
a little ruined bc of people knowing the answers + selection bias (but it was a fun story / experience, and Michael did a great job). I'm planning to run one with a random US election and anonymized names at Manifest 2025, to hopefully have an even richer experience!