This market is a duel between two paintings. Both are by legendary artists, both depict grass, and both are expected to sell for over $30 million (!!!) at Christie's "20th Century Evening Sale" live auction in New York.

• Vincent Van Gogh - Coin de jardin avec papillons

  • Estimate: USD 28,000,000 – USD 35,000,000

• David Hockney - A Lawn Being Sprinkled

  • Estimate: USD 25,000,000 – USD 35,000,000

Thus, the Van Gogh has a slightly higher lower estimate, but the variation in auction results is huge so the winner is far from certain.

This market resolves to the painting which sells for a higher value at auction.

Resolution details:

• Example from a past auction: this painting by Gentilesch has a "price realised" of USD 982,800. This is the equivalent number I will use—whatever is displayed by the auction page.

• Edge cases:

  • If one fails to sell for any reason, it resolves to the other.

  • If there's a tie (or they both fail to sell), both resolve at 50%.

  • If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.

Vincent Van Gogh - Coin de jardin avec papillons

Painted in the second year of Van Gogh’s Paris stay, Coin de jardin avec papillons is a luminous depiction of a flower bed in the public gardens at Asnières, a suburban town on the Seine to the northwest of Paris. In this painting, a small flower bed becomes a brilliant world teeming with life and color. Thick grasses and delicate flowers gently swirl and sway in a summer breeze, while butterflies flit in and out amid the greenery.

David Hockney - A Lawn Being Sprinkled

A Lawn Being Sprinkled (1967) is a masterwork dating from one of David Hockney’s most important years. Aglow with the light and color of California, its extraordinary representation of vaporized water forms a thrilling counterpart to the artist’s iconic A Bigger Splash (Tate, London), completed the same year... With its staggering, near-abstract surface detail and complex spatial theatre, A Lawn Being Sprinkled is among the most virtuosic of these canvases, alive with the teachings of art history and sparkling with the lessons of his swimming pool paintings.

For more art auctions, check out the dashboard.

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