AP called AZ last night. I'll follow the description and wait 48 hours.

this will resolve YES but description gives very specific criteria which will follow:

Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.

AP has not called several of these states yet

@Ziddletwix I think you forgot to open or resolve the mana version of this market

@dieselbaby1337 honestly no idea how this works i thought they had linked close dates but apparently mods can reopen sweeps without reopening mana? in any case, i wouldn't reopen the mana version now that there's nothing predictive left

@Ziddletwix well, regardless, it needs to settle, doesn't it? I'm still waiting for this to resolve and I can't do anything with the mana I have on here, it won't let me. If for nothing else than the pure bragging rights for getting this correct buying "Yes" at 31%

@dieselbaby1337

Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.

@Ziddletwix ah my bad i missed that part, thanks

Shame this market is closed, would have loved to put more money into this, it's trading so insanely low right now.

withdrew some liquidity so i could push the close date and allow live trading. be warned that the price will be noisy

@Ziddletwix nvm forgot this was sweeps probably should set it back to where it was

Nate Silver puts the odds at 29.0% https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

remember when Rabois got fired from Square, good times

@JesWolfe I was working there, were you there too?

@JimAusman I was there in 2011-2012, so we don’t quite overlap

Upgrading this market to 10k liquidity so the swings aren't so extreme

Do the election results have to all be certified?

@Quroe fair question—I don't think certifying is as important when it's just about the winner, and not the margin. So I will borrow the resolution criteria used for the prez market:

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

(to be clear, I have no control over the sweepstakes version of this market, that ain't mine, and it's entirely up to manifold how they choose to resolve that)