In honor of Keith Rabois' prediction on Twitter (and inspired by Polymarket):
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump wins each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.
1,000
1.00@Quroe fair question—I don't think certifying is as important when it's just about the winner, and not the margin. So I will borrow the resolution criteria used for the prez market:
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
(to be clear, I have no control over the sweepstakes version of this market, that ain't mine, and it's entirely up to manifold how they choose to resolve that)