[short-fuse] Will "Drive-Away Dolls" (directed by Ethan Coen) gross >$2.5 million during its opening weekend?
resolved Feb 28

This market will resolve YES if "Drive-Away Dolls" (2024) grosses more than $2,500,000 during its domestic opening weekend.

Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt19356262/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market.

  • I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

"Drive-Away Dolls" is the solo directorial debut of Ethan Coen (half of the Coen brothers), with the following premise:

This comedy caper follows Jamie, an uninhibited free spirit bemoaning yet another breakup with a girlfriend, and her demure friend Marian who desperately needs to loosen up. In search of a fresh start, the two embark on an impromptu road trip to Tallahassee, but things quickly go awry when they cross paths with a group of inept criminals along the way.

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bought Ṁ972 NO

BOM updated the final opening of $2,404,330. This resolves NO

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 5% order

TheNumbers with the early actuals again

@mattyb looks like the sunday morning 2.4M estimate ended up almost exactly on the mark.

I set the "marley vs 2 other movies for month of february" market thinking it'd be close, but that assumed a much smaller drop for marley than what we got (& now it doesn't look close at all)